This is a briefing of a new research report commissioned by CASE (Consortium of Associations in the South East).
With a general election only months away at most, CASE commissioned the research to understand the outlook facing whoever forms the next government in terms of housing need and delivery.
The research shows a predicted deficit of some 1.2 million new homes over the next decade, the vast majority of which is needed for affordable housing, including 830,000 social homes. These deficits will be especially acute in the south east with the analysis showing an under-supply of up to a quarter of a million homes in the region is likely by 2032/33.
The report notes that no party has yet acknowledged or set out funding and policy plans for this specific challenge, meaning problems such as homelessness and overcrowding are likely to rise unless clear action is taken. The research sits alongside the National Housing Federation’s campaign for a long-term plan for housing.
Matthew Bailes, Chair of CASE and Group Chief Executive of Paradigm Housing said:
"With an election only months away, we are calling on all parties to come forward with a long-term strategy to tackle what has become an acute housing crisis, including in the South East. The supply of social housing has consistently fallen way short of need. Unless this changes the problems of homelessness, overcrowding and falling home ownership will continue to get worse - and the costs to taxpayers of a failing system will continue to grow."
The report is attached and notes:
- The author, a former government housing economist, used a new econometric forecast to predict levels of housing delivery over the next decade, based on predicted market and economic conditions, as well as the policy and funding outlook.
- The model shows a 1.2 million homes deficit arising, at least 80% of which represents need for affordable and social housing, including over 830,000 social homes.
- The calculations are based on both the Government and Labour Party’s commitments to a current official 300,000 homes-a-year target to meet housing need, as well as current stated policy and funding plans. The model uses these, plus economic forecasts to predict delivery against need of an average 183,000 to 210,000 units a year, a deficit of between 0.9 million and 1.57 million over 10 years, the central scenario in which is around 1.2 million.
- Breaking the numbers down regionally shows the deficits will be especially acute in the South East region, where affordability is the greatest challenge: an under-supply of up to a quarter of a million homes is likely in that one region alone.
- The author shows that over the previous decade, government targets were undershot by around a million homes and that the supply of social housing has consistently fallen way short of need. The report argues that unless there is a step change in policy and funding, homelessness, overcrowding and falling home ownership will continue to rise - and the costs to taxpayers continue to grow.
The author’s policy recommendations include an urgent package of reforms undertaken for the next parliament, with a special focus on social and affordable tenures:
- New targets: reinstate immediately targets on local authorities for housing delivery and upgrade these with sub-targets specific to urgently-needed social and affordable tenures.
- Funding: Higher grant rates will be needed with commitments of capital beyond the need just to replace the present Affordable Housing Programme.
- Social rents: review the social rent formulae to take account of changes in values and rent convergence should be reinstated with indexation.
- The South East: given the specific regional problems faced, in addition to the above a regional planning strategy is needed to deliver solution is therefore also needed which better captures land value uplift to create more funding for affordable and social housing.